Football Betting

Missed opportunities cost Colts

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02/08/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning was one quarter away from capturing his second Super Bowl title in four years, but the four-time league MVP didn't get enough support from his teammates, and in the end a costly interception proved part of the downfall for the Indianapolis Colts.

Four years ago, Manning reached the summit by leading the Colts over Chicago in Miami to win the Super Bowl. Same stadium, same game, different result against a team that was destiny's pick - the New Orleans Saints.

Manning threw an interception that was returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Tracy Porter late in the fourth quarter to seal New Orleans' 31-17 win in Super Bowl XLIV.

"I don't think it will have any bearing on his legacy," Colts coach Jim Caldwell said of the interception. "Obviously, he's a great player. It never comes down to just one single play in the game."

For everything that went right for the Colts in the first quarter, periods two and four were the complete opposite. The Colts dominated the opening quarter, outgaining the Saints in yardage, 154-36. The Saints ran just 10 offensive plays in the period, but the Colts had just six in the second quarter. Indy was outgained 143-15 in the second quarter, but still maintained a 10-6 lead.

The turning point of the game though came on the opening play of the second half when rookie kicker Thomas Morstead, actually the Saints' punter, put down a perfect onside kick. Colts wide receiver Hank Baskett was in position to come up with the ball, but it squirted away and New Orleans' Jonathan Casillas came away with the football.

The Saints scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, part of a 31-7 surge in points to end the game for New Orleans in that franchise's first Super Bowl title.

"They kind of kept the momentum from there," Manning said. "We just didn't play well enough in certain times and in certain phases."

Manning finished 31-of-45 for 333 yards with a TD pass to Pierre Garcon to cap a 96-yard drive in the opening quarter.

The Colts had their opportunities, but they never got a sustained pass rush and one dropped pass in particular hurt their chances.

Dwight Freeney started for the Colts despite playing with a torn ligament in his right ankle. He had a one-handed sack of Saints quarterback Drew Brees in the second quarter, preventing a possible drive for a touchdown and limiting New Orleans to three points. Freeney had the ankle re-taped, but wasn't much of a factor in the second half.

"I tried to figure out ways to keep it warm, keep it going," Freeney said. "The problem is once it gets stiff it's tough to bring it back."

Joseph Addai was the catalyst on offense for Indianapolis. He had 13 rushes for 77 yards and a TD and caught seven passes for 58 yards.

Already ahead 10-0 in the second quarter and facing a third down at their own 28, Garcon dropped a sure first-down catch with plenty of open space ahead.

Even when they were up 17-16 early in the fourth, the Colts couldn't add to their lead as Matt Stover's 51-yard field goal hooked wide left. The Saints went ahead on the next possession when Brees connected with Jeremy Shockey for a two-yard TD pass.

"They just made the plays," Colts offensive lineman Jeff Saturday said. "The bottom line is when the game was on the line they made the plays and we didn't."


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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.